EVs Are Charging Ahead: Global EV Sales Forecast For A 30% Jump In 2025

Despite looming economic and trade tensions, the global electric vehicle (EV) market is expected to exhibit excellent resilience and growth in 2025,
based on a new analysis that predicts global EV sales to rise by nearly 30%.

According to the analysis from S&P Global Mobility, the research firm projects global EV sales will surge by nearly 30% compared to 2024, reaching 15.1 million units and capturing 16.7% of the total light vehicle market. While overall light vehicle production is anticipated to drop by 0.4% to 88.7 million units, the EV sector stands out as a bright spot in the automotive industry. The growth story, however, varies across different regions.

China continues to conquer the global EV landscape, though its growth rate is moderating. The world’s largest EV market is projected to achieve a 29.7% market share by the end of 2025, representing a more modest 19.7% year-over-year increase. This mature market growth reflects China’s established leadership in EV adoption, driven by automakers such as BYD, Changan, and Tesla.

Notably, the most dramatic transformation is expected in India, where EV adoption is forecast to more than double, with market share jumping to 7.5%. As a result, this is a stunning 117% increase from 2024. Through this analysis, this expected surge reflects India’s growing dedication to electric mobility and improving charging infrastructure.

The United States (U.S.) presents a more complex picture. Despite potential headwinds from policy changes under the incoming Trump administration, including the possible elimination of the $7,500 federal tax credit, S&P Global Mobility projects U.S. EV market share will reach 11.2%, marking a 36% increase from 2024. California’s goal of maintaining state-level incentives could help offset federal policy changes, building on its achievement of over 2 million cumulative EV sales through Q3 2024.

Central and Western Europe is expected to rebound strongly from recent challenges, with projections showing EV market share climbing to 20.4% by the end of 2025, representing a robust 43.4% year-over-year increase. This growth is supported by sustained government incentives and expanding model availability.

“2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry,” notes Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting at S&P Global Mobility. The analysis acknowledges considerable headwinds, including potential universal tariffs under the incoming U.S. administration and likely retaliatory measures from trading partners. However, Couchman’s colleague Mark Fulthorpe emphasizes that these challenges are occurring within a broader context of dramatic changes in global production landscapes and trade patterns.

Despite these obstacles, EVs remain an “important automotive growth sector” globally. The continued support of incentive programs in China, Asia, and Europe is anticipated to hold momentum in these key markets. Even in the U.S., where policy uncertainty looms largest, the potential revival of state-level incentives in crucial markets like California suggests resilience in EV demand.

Read More: Global EV Market Surges: A Turning Point In Global Automotive Sales

As the global EV market navigates shifting consumer preferences, evolving regulatory landscapes, and geopolitical uncertainties, the forecast indicates that while the path forward may be complicated, the global transition to electric mobility continues to gain momentum, driven by a combination of policy support, improving technology, and growing consumer acceptance.

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